The Fat Lady Ain’t Sung Yet

fat-lady

In my circle I’m regarded as kinda the “go-to guy” on political issues, and I have a pretty good record on predictions of trends and outcomes. Everybody’s come to me and asked me to analyze this race and predict who’s going to win. As I tell them, I just don’t know. I’ve never, ever seen anything like this in my life.

The aspects that make prediction so hard are these. This is the first time I’ve seen an election in which neither candidate has a strong base of support. Look at the numbers on their personal qualities. Both are regarded as pretty repulsive candidates. The result is that the voters going to the polls aren’t voting FOR anyone. For the most part they’re going there to cast votes AGAINST someone else. I have no idea how to factor such a phenomenon into a quantitative assessment, and I don’t think anyone else does, either.

Polls are dependent on people answering pollsters honestly. But what happens when a large number of people are embarrassed about their actual opinion, and lie? It skews things, and again we have the uniqueness of an election in which both major candidates are an embarrassment for a lot of people to admit to supporting.

Polling results can be “pushed” by the phrasing of questions asked. There’s absolutely NO doubt that the MSM, which sponsor most polls, have committed themselves to Clinton. They haven’t even tried to hide it this time. So how has that affected the polling questions they’ve formulated, and the consequently skewed results, leading to inaccurate conclusions? Again, hard to quantify.

The majority of the people voting FOR Clinton (as opposed to AGAINST Trump) are the party faithful, and they’d vote for anybody who won that party’s nomination, and quite happily. But that’s not at all the case with Trump. Those who actually want to vote FOR him (as opposed to AGAINST Clinton) managed to essentially take over the GOP nomination process and force him down the party’s throat. It was a populist uprising. A revolt. Many are party members, or former members, but many are people who feel that the GOP – and probably both parties – haven’t represented their interests for a long time. They joined the GOP to support Trump into the nomination, but they’re not committed to that party at all. How can they be categorized, and consequently polled?

There’s an “enthusiasm” aspect which pollsters have started to acknowledge in recent years that has an effect on voting turnout, and that turnout can have a major impact on election outcome. But again, in a race between repulsive candidates, how can you quantify that “enthusiasm”? Will one’s enthusiasm to vote FOR a candidate be more meaningful than another’s “enthusiasm” to vote AGAINST that same candidate?

There are other factors, too, but I think these are the big ones. That’s why I think the results of this race are still up in the air. I don’t find any of the current polling, or predictions, to be persuasive, frankly. It could be a squeaker either way; it could be a landslide blowout, either way. I just don’t have a clue, and I don’t think the pollsters do, either.

In support of my thesis, here’s a (Link) to an interview with John Zogby that was conducted a couple of days ago. Zogby’s one of this country’s most prominent and reliable pollsters, and the title of the article says it all:  “Pollster John Zogby: Presidential Race Far From Over”.

There’s still time to save this country, folks. Let’s get out there and do our part.

 

 

©Brian Baker 2016

 

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55 comments on “The Fat Lady Ain’t Sung Yet

  1. Hopeful says:

    The only thing we know for sure at this point is that one side is going to be happy, while the other side is going to be miserable, and then you have people like me, who are unhappy already because BOTH candidates are horrible!

  2. Virginia Patriot says:

    This is actually the first time since 1984 that I am voting FOR someone rather than just voting against the Democrat. GWB was a “compassionate” conservative who wanted amnesty. I voted for him twice hoping for the best and getting disappointed. McCain was a Democrat in an R jersey and the author of the previous TWO amnesty attempts and a bridge too far, I voted for Bob Barr. Romney was an inveterate liar that had taken every side of every issue, but I held my nose because I had had enough of the Kenyanesian Usurpation.
    This is the last chance we have to keep our country.
    If we lose this time, I will probably give up voting and politics altogether.
    What difference, at that point, will it make?

    • BrianR says:

      LOL!

      I like the Clinton quote at the end. Rich irony.

      I followed your exact voting pattern and reasoning. Like minds, I guess.

  3. captbogus2 says:

    I don’t understand any of it. The polls say Hillary is out front yet I never see a Clinton yard sign and have only talked to one person in the beer joints that says she is for her. The traitorous RINO’s will OWN this thing if she gets elected but I guess they think that’s okay as they will get to keep their place at the banquet table. I only hope that their constituents remember this treachery when they are up for re-election.

    • BrianR says:

      Buck, I’m with you. I don’t get it, either. The one thing I do recall is that at this point in 1980 the polls had Carter ahead of Reagan by about 15%.

      As to the RINOs, I think they’re in deep doodoo with the base no matter how this turns out. They lost all credibility when so many of them turned traitor to their alleged party and refused — REFUSED — to support the official candidate, in some case, like Jebbie!!!, reneging on their pledges to do so.

      • cyn3wulf says:

        “I think they’re in deep doodoo with the base no matter how this turns out.” I know a lot of people who are voting for Trump but refuse to vote for establishment Rs. It’s not just that they are tired of the usual establishment shenanigans; they are deeply angry at them. If they go down, they signed their own death warrant. Shooting themselves in the foot doesn’t begin to describe it.

      • BrianR says:

        LOL!

        Yeah…

      • captbogus2 says:

        Reneging on their pledges should be the tie breaker. That proves they are men without honor.

      • BrianR says:

        Absolutely.

    • cyn3wulf says:

      The enthusiasm gap is real. Just look at the size of the rallies.

  4. Jnana Hodson says:

    Trump ain’t gonna win the White House. At this point, we’re looking at the rest of the races.

    • BrianR says:

      First things first. Welcome, newbie Jnana! Thanks for taking the time to comment.

      Well, as I wrote, I really just don’t know. I’m inclined to think it’ll be a squeaker and could go either way, but I might be all wet. Hell, it could be a landslide… either way.

      But I think you hit an important point. The down-ticket races are always important, of course, but are particularly so this time, given the nature of BOTH candidates. It’ll take the power of Congress to keep either of them in control, IMO.

    • cyn3wulf says:

      I wouldn’t bet against him. In any event, I found it interesting today that he was in a great, light-hearted mood, and he actually encouraged voting for down ticket Republicans. Haven’t seen him do that before.

  5. jevica says:

    Brian;

    I’m not especially happy with Trump, but seeing the other choice Trump is the only one. I also voted for Bush (both of them) also Reagan but not John McCain or Romney.

    HRC would set a course for this country that will make us unrecognizable as the republic we have.

    • BrianR says:

      Damn right, Jev. She’s a major disaster, personified.

      • jevica says:

        Amen, we have to realize that the Supreme Court is a co-equal branch of government

      • BrianR says:

        Yes! And for me, this time, probably THE most important reason to keep her out of the White House.

      • cyn3wulf says:

        Hey, Jev and Brian, what did you guys think of the contract he outlined in his speech at Gettysburg the other day:


        Skip to 15:20 if you don’t want to hear the first part of the speech.

      • BrianR says:

        I’d already read about it, and thought it was good that he was actually dealing with policy.

        But again, he needs to stop popping off about every little person who offends him. He dilutes his message.

      • CW says:

        Wasn’t the Supreme Court a co-equal branch of gov’t when McCain and Romney ran against Barack Obama?

      • BrianR says:

        If Clinton gets to appoint the next Justice or two, SCOTUS will turn into an unelected oligarchy, legislating by judicial fiat. Nine black-robed mandarins dictating to the country.

    • captbogus2 says:

      Congress has been GOP in both houses for awhile now and they haven’t busted a grape trying to keep them in control.

    • captbogus2 says:

      I’m 77 and this country is already unrecognizable as the republic we once had in my lifetime and memory.

      • BrianR says:

        I’m sure all of us old farts feel the same way. I say that to my daughter all the time, and give her examples.

  6. Sandy says:

    I like your article, very well said. I started getting down reading all the garbage being said how Hillary was on the rise after all that’s currently being divulged its hard for me to completely take so i try not to listen to the news now. Occasionally it slips in then after about 30 minutes I have to turn it off.

    • BrianR says:

      Thanks, Sandy. Of course, the MSM is in the tank for Clinton, so they’re trying to sell the “there’s no hope for Trump” meme so that people who’d vote for him give up and don’t vote.

      Let’s prove them wrong.

  7. cyn3wulf says:

    I actually like what Hannity says: always assume you’re down but just by a little so you fight hard to the end.

    As for polling, here’s a great article on that (ties in one of the latest Podesta emails): https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/23/timely-wikileaks-email-highlights-deception-within-media-polling/

  8. CW says:

    No doubt this is a strange election for a lot of reasons, Brian, but while I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a Trump win, I am reminded of the Romney/Obama contest when we were told the polls were wrong. It’s true that Reagan appeared to have upset the polls in 1980, but he only had one debate with Carter and that was on October 28th – just about a week before the election. And he was Reagan. I think we all know Donald Trump is no Ronald Reagan. It can’t hurt to be hopeful but we’d better be prepared for the worst.

  9. garnet92 says:

    Anyone voting for Hillary won’t be electing her for just four years. A vote for Hillary is a vote for EIGHT YEARS of Hillary.

    Once she’s in power does anyone really believe that her control of governmental resources would allow any opponent to oust her? In addition to academia, Hollywood, government employees, unions, and the media, she and her lackeys will be in control of the entire federal government – no opponent need apply.

    Once her Supreme Court nominees are in place, what will be the likely outcome for abortion, the 1st and 2nd Amendments, immigration, crime enforcement, Christian religious liberty, etc. when she has a 5/4, 6/3, or (God forbid) even a 7/2 majority on the court?

    I could write a book on the horrors that likely await us if the evil bitch is elected.

    • BrianR says:

      Agreed, Garnet. That’s why I keep hitting the SCOTUS issue hard in my essays. I think it’s probably THE most important issue of this election.

  10. captbogus2 says:

    Lettuce spray!

  11. slowcowboy says:

    I don’t understand, Brian. Are we not to take the media at its word? What world are you living in?

    • BrianR says:

      I know, I know.

      I’m also still waiting for that Nigerian prince to send me my money. I just don’t understand what’s taking so long…

  12. jevica says:

    Brian;

    If HRC is elected POTUS, she will probably be the last President I see elected for this republic. I’m 72 now eight years of HRC will bring me to the declining years of th U.S.,what a terrible way to go out.

    • BrianR says:

      Jev, let me shed a ray of sunlight for you. If the Hildebeest does win, the odds of her being re-elected are pretty much nil.

      Bush 1 succeeded Reagan and was a one-termer. Truman succeeded FDR and was a one-termer. LBJ succeeded JFK and was a one-termer. I can’t think of a single example offhand of a President’s successor from the same party serving two full terms.

  13. Hopeful says:

    Well, Brian, the title of your column may be more real now than any of us thought. Who would have ever imagined that FBI Comey would reopen Hillary’s e-mail scandal so close to the election? I mean, I thought Wikileaks could potentially take HIllary down, but after July, I never thought it would be the FBI.

    Of course, I fully anticipate more horrible things will come out about Hillary AND Donald, so who knows at this point what will happen on November 8th. At this point, I just want it to be over, so I can mourn and get on with my life since I can’t stand any Presidential Candidate!

    • BrianR says:

      Yeah, hopeful, who’da thunk it?

      Life is stranger than fiction this time around, fer sher.

      • jevica says:

        Brian;

        Been going over this early voting B. S.. HRC might have a lot of votes in this early voting. Have seen articles that might not be Constitutional

      • BrianR says:

        Yes, she might.

        My opinion is that early voting is total BS. If you can’t show up at the polls on the day of, then you can’t vote, unless you’re in the service or out of state and qualify for an absentee ballot.

  14. jevica says:

    Brian;

    Agree with you 100percent, more if possible

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