My Mom, Political Bellwether

The week before last I went down to San Diego to visit Mom. Let me tell you a little bit about her, to set the stage.

Mom’s Armenian, born and raised in Iran where my dad met her after WW2. She’s a post-war bride, an immigrant who did the whole Ellis Island thing, got her US citizenship, and became a productive member of society, raising two young kids alone when she became a widow at a young age while working her tail off to provide them a good standard of living.

Like many (if not most) immigrants of her era, she’s politically conservative, subscribing to the traditional American values that made this country a Mecca for them. But over the last few election cycles, as health issues have affected her mobility, she’s become much less politically active, by which I mean she hasn’t voted in the last few elections.

When I visited her we talked politics, as is usual. She’s very concerned about the direction Obama has taken this country, and the implications of his policies and how they’re affecting our economic soundness, as well as our standing in the world community; so much so that she has determined to cast her vote in this election come November. Each time, she asks me how I assess the status of the race, and what I think the outcome will be.

Each time, I tell her that in my opinion, if the election were held today, I think Obama would handily lose. Further, that contrary to the popular wisdom and polling data, I think it could well be a landslide of Reaganesque proportions. And that barring any unusual event between now and November, I don’t think Obama has a chance.

I then point out to her that she, herself, is a great example of the dynamic that’s in effect. She’s so motivated to see him gone that she’s more engaged in the political scene than she’s been in almost two decades, and is bound and determined to make her voice heard. And because of that, she’s a great example – a bellwether – of what’s ahead in November as so many other people just like her – people who aren’t normally involved directly in the process – get themselves to the polls to get rid of the amateur/socialist in the White House.

Most of the current polls indicate a very tight race, with Obama sometimes in the lead, and sometimes Romney. But don’t let those polls fool you; there’s a dynamic in this country I haven’t seen since 1980, when the polls showed Carter with the lead over Reagan, right up to end of the campaign, when the only poll that matters – the actual vote results – ushered Reagan into the White House with a 49-state landslide victory. I well remember the absolute shock (and outrage!) of the newscasters of the time when they were announcing the election results, and that Reagan had won.

In 1976 Carter’s campaign for President revolved around the country’s disaffection for anything Nixon, including his policies and his replacement, Gerald Ford. Carter was the “not Nixon” candidate. By 1980, he’d demolished the economy, inflation was through the roof, interest rates on loans were at record highs, property values had crashed, there were gas lines at the pumps as prices soared, we’d lost our international prestige, and Americans had been held hostage in Iran for over a year.

In 2008 Obama’s campaign for President revolved around the country’s disaffection for Bush and his policies. Obama was the “not Bush”; McCain was tarred as being “Bush 3”. And now, in 2012, he’s demolished the economy, the country’s in debt to its hairline, gas prices are at record highs (having more than doubled since he took office), credit card interest rates are at record highs, property values are in the doldrums, right along with our international prestige, our national credit rating has been downgraded for the first time in history and is in danger of being so again, and he’s perceived by large segments of the populace as having run rampant over the Constitution with such programs as Obamacare and his penchant for abusing the Executive Order power to make laws not properly enacted by Congress.

In 1980 Carter had lost the enthusiastic support of much of his base, and energized his opponents by his actions. In 2010 Obama finds himself in exactly the same position. Again, remember my Mom; she’s going to vote for the first time in many years just to get rid of the guy.

That’s what’s going to make the difference this year, and why I’m predicting that – barring unforeseen major events – we could very well see another landslide this year.

In 2009, shortly after he took office, Matt Lauer interviewed Obama, and he had this to say: “One nice thing about the situation I find myself in is that I will be held accountable. You know, I’ve got four years. A year from now, I think people are going to see that we’re starting to make some progress. But there’s still going to be some pain out there. If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.”

I think he predicted that one correctly. Probably a first for him. Let’s all do our best to make his at that time arrogant prediction a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

© Brian Baker 2012

 

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41 comments on “My Mom, Political Bellwether

  1. Gunny G says:

    I agree with Mom. Obama is toast and HE KNOWS IT that is why he is working on nothing but fundraisers so that he can depart with a fat wallet to support Moochelle as she is accustomed to be.

    THANK GOD we stood AGAINST McShame because had he won, NO WAY would the nation not only be motivated to go back to what made us great but NO WAY would the masses have awoken to the fact that unions, progressives, liberals, commies, Soros, marxists, maoists are a REAL threat to our nation.

    Saint Crispin’s Day Society Forever!

    • BrianR says:

      Guns, you have NO idea how many times I’ve had exactly that same thought. If McAmnesty was Prez right now, the country wouldn’t know whether to s**t or go blind.

      The last election, and McIdjit’s loss, set the stage for the lefties to overreach, which would finally and CLEARLY distinguish the difference between us and them. It would draw the lines so clearly even a blind man could see them. It HAD to be done, because otherwise the country was just boiling the frog.

      I’m proud to be a “Crispie”. SCDS Forever!

      WE welcome the Tea Party, you latecomers!

      LOL

  2. jevica says:

    Brian;

    Even though I can’t take BHO, I’m sooooo glad John McLiberal [Mr across the aisle] did not win. He was sooo bad [I could not hold my nose enough to vote for him].

    Your mom is spot on, and so is this post. Look at him he has to blame anyone but him, [esp. Bush 43] after almost four years, it’s still Bush’s fault. BHO is a real big time B. S. artist.

    Best to everyone.

    Remember what happened on that day called D.

    • BrianR says:

      Hi, Jev! Good to see you again.

      I am absolutely with you (and Gunny and the rest of the Crispies) on McLefty. We did a good thing for the country, IMO.

      BHO is the absolute epitome of an “empty suit”. Or as Gertrude Stein (I think) put it, “There’s no ‘there’, there.”

      The guy’s got nothing. He’s a huckster; Elmer Gantry; promise the moon, and give them bupkes. Then blame someone else.

  3. captbogus@yahoo.com says:

    Brian, Gunny, Jev:
    Right. Providence has a way of working things out.
    Like if McCain had won we would not only have had 4 years of Carter II but then we would have had 4 more years of Zero. Or Hillary but she’s just Zero in a pants suit.
    We might have had as long a run towards socialism as we had under FDR/Truman which was damn near 20 years.
    Don’t think we could survive that again.
    Just hope Remney doesn’t turn out to be another “compassionate conservative”…

    • BrianR says:

      I hope so, too, Buck. That’s always the risk, in which case we shot our ammo to earn a defeat.

      This is our last best chance to get this country back on track. Otherwise the Fat lady will have sung.

      • thedrpete says:

        First, thanks, BrianR, for sharing a bit of your mom with us. Second, great to read from others who made the same play as I in ’08, and for the same reasons.

        Third, while the Tea Partiers did a great job in 2010 and while we’re doing pretty well in the down-ballot races now, we failed to top the ticket with a, say, Rubio or West, an eloquent and committed conservative and constitutionalist. Thus, fourth and finally, America’s last chance has exited stage left where Kate Smith is doing vocal warm-ups.

      • BrianR says:

        Thanks for the kind words, DrP.

        Yep, many of us wouldn’t play the “nose-holding” game four years ago, and all for the same reason.

        It didn’t quite achieve the goal, as you pointed out. But I’m not quite as sure that Romney won’t step up when he’s really in the office. Only time will tell us that. And as you and I have discussed, the game’s really in Congress, so we’ll have to see where that goes, too.

        Romney could go wither way, and I’m hoping that once in office he’ll go with a more traditionally conservative agenda than what he’s been speaking about to this point. Maybe I’m being foolish, but that’s kind of my read of the guy.

  4. Nee says:

    Well. !980 was my first election and I do not remember the shock of Newscasters at all. I do remember that the economy was effed…and that as an already struggling family, we were okay.

    Four years later, in the Army, the mood of the country was completely different. I would love to know what my Gram would say to this…she was a staunch supporter of Nixon and Reagan. It broke her heart, the day Nixon resigned. She could not get over that Office of President caved to power over the people. She was not naive in any sense, but this caused her to tolerate things in future elections that I would never entertain.

    She taught me that as long as I exercise the right to vote to remember that sometimes you get what you want and sometimes you don’t. But, as a citizen you must support the President. I am sure I made her roll over in her grave a thousand times, because I could not support one thing this man has done. I am not sorry that I must try my best to continue the fight for the futures of my kids and this nation. Barack Obama went Full Metal Jacket with every decision he made in a deliberate attempt to destroy American Exceptionalism. It is not going to stand on my watch.
    Kudos to your Mother and may she influence the rest of her friends to think the same way!!

    • BrianR says:

      Nee, thanks, and kudos to YOU.

      I’m with you as to not “supporting” the jackass in the White House. He demeans the office and the entire country. He doesn’t love America; he loves the idea of what he can turn it into (if we let him): some Euro-trash “social democracy”.

      I LOATHE that SOB.

  5. captbogus@yahoo.com says:

    St. Crispins Day?
    For awhile I thought we’d need a Guy Falkes Day.
    Might still.

  6. CW says:

    Your mom is an impressive woman!

    I hope you’re right about Romney winning. Unfortunately I can’t shake my faith in the stupidity of an ever-growing sector of our population. I will be nervous right up until the election, after which my nervousness will turn to either abject horror or a brief moment of relief followed by trepidation.

    My biggest fear (aside from Obama being re-elected) is that an Obama defeat will create unwarranted faith and hope in Romney, that he will become the new standard of conservatism as each election ushers in a lowering of that bar. We will forget all about our lofty dreams and talk of what real conservatism, and we will settle for a mere slowing of the advance of progressivism.

    Now that there is finally someone to unite behind, I worry that people will go easy on Romney when instead our strategy should be to demand that Romney earn our votes by being more than just not-Obama. “Any But Obama.” That’s what some are using as a rallying cry. Really? Are we that weak and desperate? Perhaps we are but you’d think we would at least have the good sense not to advertise it.

    Romney is not going to be the Right’s savior. He is merely someone who might be able to turn the course of this ship long enough to keep us from crashing into an iceberg today or tomorrow. He will constantly need to be pushed to keep from veering back into the path of the ice bergs. If we approach this with that in mind there’s still hope.

    I know I sound like Eeyore right now but unwarranted jubilation can be our worst enemy at this point.

    • BrianR says:

      CW, thanks for the kind words about Mom. Needless to say, I agree! Plus, she’s a hoot. What a great sense of humor!

      I couldn’t agree more with all your (and the others’) trepidations. No doubt, we’ll still have our work cut out for us. But let’s face it, McCain was a disaster waiting to happen if he’d won, and Bush 2 was pretty bad in many ways. Barely better than the guys he beat, and Romney would have to really work at it to be worse. So no matter what, I’m almost positive he’d be better than Bush was — though that’s probably an example of your mentioning that the bar’s set pretty low.

      I think you really nailed it in your last para and closing sentence. Not only Eeeyore, but Pogo: “We have met the enemy, and he is us”.

  7. clyde says:

    Excellent essay,Brian,and God bless your Mom. If I had to carry her on my back crawling to the polls,I’d do it. At this point in time,having seen what has happened to the nation,and the absolute mess Obama has made,while we took a LOT of heat,lost a number of friends,it looks like maybe we WERE on to something by SCDS’ing. Time will tell. The Wisconsin result was definitely a shot in the arm,just today the moonbats in Michiruit trying to pull the same shit with Snyder shut down their efforts.ANY R governor now has cover to follow a similar course to Walker,IF they have the stones.

    • BrianR says:

      Clyde, thanks on behalf of Mom. I really appreciate that.

      I do think we were onto something. We had to turn up the heat so the damned frog would jump out of the pot, and it looks like it may be working. Maybe not as fast as we’d have liked, but it’s progress in the right direction.

      As to the Governors, I’ve been pretty impressed by some of the ones in office now: Walker, of course. Jan Brewer. Perry (as a Governor). Some — SOME — of the things Christie’s done, though in other ways he’s a raving liberal.

  8. Jack says:

    Hope I don’t get stoned (!), but I always thought Carter kind of got a bad rap…not that he was great or anything, but there was one HELL of a hangover from the 10+ years in Vietnam and Nixon’s many, many, many horrible economic choices (commie price-controls, canceling of the int’l gold-standard, creation of the EPA to name a few)…not to mention that many of LBJ’s Great Society programs really started ramping-up about the time Carter got into office. Reagan, often, is given a pass on some his mistakes/missteps (and there are some DOOSIES, let’s be honest) because of “the mess he inherited from Carter”…if you’re gonna do that, at least be consistent and give Carter SOME leeway too.

    Other than that…some great “Mom-stories”…you’re lucky to still have her around.

    • BrianR says:

      You’ll never get stoned here, Jack! I welcome all points of view — including those I don’t agree with — as long as people are civil. I’ve had to “moderate” a few out, but those were invariably things people had written that were indecent or uncivil tirades.

      This blog isn’t meant to be just an echo chamber.

      And thanks for the kind words about Mom. Always appreciated. I do love my Mom.

      Re Carter. Obviously, I don’t know how old you are, but I suspect you’re quite a bit younger than I, and your knowledge of Carter’s term probably isn’t based on first-hand memories of his mess. He was completely incompetent politically. He couldn’t get anything good done, had a completely insane view of international affairs (look at how he let OPEC get away with murder, failed to support our ally the Shah of Iran and let Islamic fundamentalists take over the coutnry and take our Embassy over, as well as take the diplomats hostage), and basically ran this country into the ground in four short years.

      Reagan never made any excuses about a “mess he inherited from Carter” at all. He rolled up his sleeves and got to work, and managed to turn this country around in no time. That’s just the way it was. If Reagan could do it, Carter COULD have done it, too. He just didn’t believe in Reagan’s America. He was a precursor to Obama. It really is the difference between the Right and the Left.

      • Jack says:

        I was ALMOST old enough (16) to vote for Reagan…in 1984! I came from a fairly political household and remember my parents being very excited about Reagan in 1980 and on. I’m not old enough that I remember the Carter years the way an adult from the time would, though. However, having actually “been there” isn’t the whole story…there are still reams of old folks who “were there” during socialist FDR’s reign who would tell us he single-handedly saved America…sometimes it takes a little distance to get an accurate picture. I think the same applies to Carter AND Reagan…this internet thing sure has expanded MY views and understanding. More later.

      • BrianR says:

        You can kind of understand the worship of FDR. People of the time were very unsophisticated. Before FDR: Depression. After FDR: no Depression. Therefore, FDR was genius who saved the day. They didn’t understand the long-term effects and dangers of deficit spending.

        And, of course, the socialist mindset of today STILL has the support of wide swaths of this country who worship at the altar of FDR.

        Believe me when I tell you that during the Carter years (I’m 63), it seemed that we stood in the middle of a crumbling structure. More bad news almost every week. Gas prices constantly going up; unemployment constantly going up; interest rates constantly going up. The only thing going down was our property values, tanking like crazy. It was insane.

        Reagan took office, and the slide virtually immediately stopped, things turned around, and we were on the highway (not just a road) to recovery. IMO, he’s going to go down in history as the greatest Prez in the 20th Century, and one of the greatest in history.

  9. Jack says:

    Some time back I came on here and said I thought BHO was gonna beat Romney…however, BHO sure has managed to shoot himself in the foot a few times…and it seems most conservatives (I haven’t decided to as yet) are gonna suck it up and nose-hold for Romney–can’t say I blame ’em either (hell, I might end up joining ’em). I’ve just got a nagging feeling BHO has some trick or other up his sleeve he’s gonna use to eek-out a win come November…and–hate to beat a dead-horse–but it HAS to be said: Romney is still a liberal-lite ‘moderate’ from maybe THE MOST liberal State in the Union and does NOT have an impressive record; I’ve gotta think that’s gonna cause at least SOME to desert him.

    • BrianR says:

      I think he’s managed to shoot himself in the head, missing his feet entirely.

      There’s no doubt that Romney certainly would never be MY first choice. But four years ago I wrote that I could hold my nose and vote for him. But that I’d NEVER vote for either Giuliani (whom I called Bald Hillary) or McAmnesty; just like I wrote this time that I’d never vote for Gingrich.

      The key with Romney is to hold his feet to the fire. In the last 4 years I think we’ve seen a significant political shift in this country, with the rise of the Tea Party being very symptomatic. I think the pragmatist in Romney sees that, and just as he could “adjust” to being Governor of that bluest of blue states, he can “adjust” into being a pretty good Prez. Is it a sure thing? Heck no. But, going back to Reagan, let’s remember that as Commiefornia’s Governor he was much more liberal than he was as Prez.

  10. Gray Ghost (Mississippi) says:

    Brian, I too agree with your mother, If I have to crawl through broken glass, I will vote against O’Vomit in November. And your mother might have been born in Iran; but she is American as apple pie, much more so than some of the Democrap morons.

    I am lucky (like you) that my mother is still alive and living with my older sister in Greenville, MS. Just having her this close and having her tell stories to my grandchildren is worth alot. (Just after showing the grands “Thirty Seconds over Tokyo”, she got to tell them about Dean Davenport, the co-pilot of the Ruptured Duck and a man she dated before marrying my father.)

    At this point in the election cycle, I place no great weight in the polls, even if the MSM wasn’t slanting them every which way but true. However, my prediction stays the same: Obama will lose in a minor landslide, gathering only 42% of the popular vote (Romney will garner 57%). As for how the states will break, I anticipate that Obama will only get 6 or 7.

    (PS: Sorry I am again late to the party; but work has been keeping me busy. This week I finished two design projects. Early next week I will meet with a school board concerning another project. Plus I am scheduled to meet with a county board concerning an onsite wastewater project for a small community which will use an abandoned railroad bed as the location of a wastewater treatment system. The soil brought in for the railroad bed in the late 1890’s was SUBERB and readily usable as a treatment “media”. I am really proud of the concept as it was my idea. I am working with a younger civil engineer who is an old friend. His father and my father were partners in an engineering firm. And I was at the hospital when he was born.)

    • BrianR says:

      Great stories, Gray. Thanks.

      Also, kudos on the project and its solution. Sounds pretty ingeious to me.

  11. Gray Ghost (Mississippi) says:

    PPS: My prediction would only change for the worse for Obama should any major events occur. These events include something like Bill Clinton coming out and telling the world not to vote for Obama because……..(Place any reason in the blank you like. IF Bill does something like that, Obama will only get 30% of the popular vote. The way I “read” the Democrats, even they are looking for a reason not to vote for him.))

    • BrianR says:

      Like he (Clinton) did a couple days ago? And now they’ve got his staff spinning like crazy, saying that he’s lost his marbles?

      THAT, my friend, is how disgusting leftists are. Here they’ve absolutely VENERATED Zipper Bill for 20 years, but say one PEEP anti-Obozo and you’re an idiot, “old”, suffering early dementia, whatever.

      With “friends” like leftists, who the hell needs enemies? I’ve known scorpions that were safer to hang around with.

  12. BrianR says:

    NDAA is an annual budget bill, so your objection is very vague.

    Assuming you’re upset about the provisions allowing the arrest and detention on US soil by the US military of American citizens and their indefinite detainment, that provision has been challenged in Federal court and has been enjoined pending further legal action. Frankly, IMO, it doesn’t have a chance of surviving the legal challenge, as it’s clearly unconstitutional on several grounds. Specifically, it violates the 5th and 6th Amendments, the right of habeas corpus, and the Posse Comitatus Act.

    So, as an issue, that one’s pretty much moot.

    That having been said, is it troubling that Romney said he’d have signed it? Sure. It shows he’s not a knowledgeable constitutionalist, but that’s not exactly news. He’s not very good on the gun issue, either.

    So… what’s YOUR solution? Re-elect Obama? Great plan.

    Now, you’re new here, so I’ll explain my one major rule here on my blog, which says plainly on the home page that I moderate. We don’t get into personal insults or ad hominem attacks here. I won’t allow it. I welcome all points of view, but they WILL be written courteously.

    NO ONE is “treasonous” for voting their conscience. Period. Any further comments of that type will simply go right into the trash and never see the light of day.

    I ony give one warning.

  13. BrianR says:

    And again: your solution is… what? Re-elect Obama?

    Great plan.

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  15. BrianR says:

    Well, you were warned, “Commando”. Or should I say “Silver Bullet”?

    Yes, you can change your screen name and your email address. Sadly for you, you can’t change your IP address, and I can see that, too. I know it’s you, as well as all the other screen names you’ve used here to post your comments.

    It should be clear to you by now that I have no problem allowing comments with which I don’t agree. These are your first comments I’ve deleted. But as I told you, when you start acting like a shmuck, your idiotic comments WILL be deleted.

  16. thedrpete says:

    So, okay, count me treasonous.

    • BrianR says:

      I guess that makes me “treasonous”, too.

      Interestingly enough, the Founders were traitors in the eyes of King George…

  17. Jim says:

    You mom sounds awesome! She is exactly what an American is suppose to be! Not someone who crawled over a fence in the middle of the night and is sitting on her but pumping children out and demanding we pay her. The libs are getting desperate! My wife was handed a flier when she was out the other day that says (just to name a few things): Wtch MSNBC Mon-Fri at 6:00pm
    THE TRUTH president Obama wants to help you
    NOTE; the Republicans want Obama to be a one term president
    Why? He wants to help the middle class
    He wants to help people of all races
    He is very intelligent
    He is being judged by his color not by his character
    PEOPLE: republicans are against teh middle class

    Vote Obama on Nov. 6 2012 WHY?
    BECAUSE.. Romney will be worse then Bush
    >He does not care if Hispanics self deport
    >will put an end to Medicare and Medicaid
    >will end Social Security
    >will freeze minimum wage
    >will put an end to breast and cervical cancer research
    >will end the food stamp program
    >will raise interest on student loans
    >did not help the middle calss in Massachusetts
    >will cut the department of education

    Register now..don’t be late-avoid the trap

    I think they are getting desperate!

    • BrianR says:

      First, Jim, thanks for the kind words about Mom.

      And, whoa….!!!

      Desperate?

      I guess so! And rightfully so. How’d you like to have to run on Bat Ears’s record?

      Great stuff, Jim. Thanks.

  18. thedrpete says:

    I would like — rather than either be tagged for veep — Marco Rubio as Senate Majority Leader and Alan West as Speaker of the House.

    • BrianR says:

      DrP, I have to say that IMO Rubio’s recent blather about illegal aliens has taken the bloom off his rose for me. “It’s not amnesty, and it’s not deportation. It’s somewhere in between”. What the heck is THAT supposed to mean?

      I really like West. He’d be a terrific Speaker, but I don’t see the Establishment GOPers getting Boehner out of the way.

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